What's Been and What's Ben

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2008.11.14

I would like to point out that this is how things would have gone, had Obama won by more votes on a national scale. I dreamed too big and called five states wrong that I should not have done. Well Missouri is still technically up in the air. Of course the senate race in Minnesota is rediculously close.

I think this will become my new website until I come up with something better or if I just break down and get some kind of regular blogging account or buy a website.

I wish I had more time this quarter. I got a B in lens design, so I am happy. Also I can't edit my old site until I get my old laptop reimaged. I am so excited to go to Saudi Arabia this Winter.

2008.11.02

TWO DAYS LEFT! Soon all will be revealed and a new dawn (or dusk) will come over the land!

I am from the un-patriotic part of America. Any way you divide it, I am from the side that hates America. My high school was a ghost town on Iraq War protest day. We do not blindly support the president. We cling to our starbucks and hybrid cars instead of Jesus and guns. Palin lost it for me when she repeatedly said this about my America. I am always amused when politicians use the fear that a liberal will hand the nuclear launch codes over to terrorists.

HOORAY FOR CLASS WARFARE! This election is really about redistribution of wealth.

Me and my friend Ramzi have a running bet where each Tuesday we would make electoral college maps where we predicted how the actual electoral college will play out. We use a point system where you get 3 points for calling a state and then 2 bonus points if you guess if it is leaning or not (within 5 points). So you get 0, 3, or 5 points for each state depending on the getting it wrong, right, and right with the correct lean. Here are my maps for the last few weeks. I did a decent amount of statistical and social analysis. I was trying to be as accurate as possible and not go with my heart too often since money was on the line. I heavily relied initially on realclearpolitics.com but then learned of the far superior fivethirtyeight.com that uses smarter statistics. I was still able to call the shift in the northern plains states before any statistical organization out there. BLUE is strong Obama (>5%), LIGHT BLUE is leaning Obama (<5%), PINK is leaning McCain, and RED is strong McCain.

Week 1 - 2008 September 9 tuesday

I would like to point out that I have Obama winning every one of my predictions. I generally think polls underestimate Obama voters because young people don't have cell phones. There are people who are going to not vote for Obama because he is black, but they will find other reasons to vote against him because being openly racist isn't as cool as it used to be. I gave New Hampshire to McCain because they like him, well, they did, before he drank the kool-aid.

Week 2 - 2008 September 16 tuesday

I lost the faith a bit. Palin was peaking her power where she was so new that it shook up the etch-a-sketch for a few weeks. This is the lowest point in my estimatation for Obama. I did clean up my feelings about New Hampshire. I figured that Bush-Kerry would almost repeat itself with a clear divide between the United States of Canada and Jesusland plus Colorado.

Week 3 - 2008 September 23 tuesday

I started to see a shift. I don't know what I was thinking about Oregon and Michigan. My southern creep is expanding. This is the first time I put Indiana in the blue. New Mexico was me was tough because of the strong Latino population.

Week 4 - 2008 September 30 tuesday

I started my idea that Georgia would not be polled correctly and put it leaning Obama. This at the time went against all the polls around. Montana is also interesting because no polling is done there but little monthly polls. West Virigina also moved into light red. This was after the Palin effect died down. Note Montana turning pink.

Week 5 - 2008 October 7 tuesday

I don't know what I was thinking. I am proud of my North Dakota call. I should have kept Montana pink, at least. Florida being solid blue was a bit of a stretch. West Virginia going blue was based on some random polls that in later weeks didn't play out.

Week 6 - 2008 October 14 tuesday

I like my call on the Dakotas. I preempted polls by a few weeks because I saw the nation trending and thought that their polls should catch up.

Week 7 - 2008 October 21 tuesday

Northern plains for Obama. Polls now put this region in the statistical tie land especially considering the bad polling done here. I put Louisiana in the leaning McCain column because of Katrina and because if black people turn out in large numbers (>90%) it can shift the 2004 Bush-Kerry numbers into the blue. I didn't want to push it. Georgia has the same idea.

Week 8 - 2008 October 28 tuesday

This is the world as I have most recently seen it. I am bad at calling leaning republican I think. Arizona being in play in legitimate and astounding. West Virginia was't realistic in the blue. Indiana will be my indicator on Tuesday night since our polls mostly close by 6pm, 7pm in the north (by Chicago and central time). If we go for Obama by a good margin in southern Indiana then all will be okay since both campaigns have been working here. I am predicting a landslide victory for Obama because if democrats ever should be getting an election handed to them it is now. Voter turnout will be strange and completely unpredictable. I have confidence that youths and blacks (Obama supporters) will turn out to vote out of pride and not just stay home because Obama winning is inevitable. Just a historical reminder, I thought Kerry was going to win until 6:37 pm central time on election night. If McCain wins there will be rioting in the streets because election fraud will be the scapegoat for Obama losing.

Week 9 - 2008 November 4 tuesday

soon to come. Look for some leanings in the deep south and some cohesive reasoning out West.

2008.10.02

Here are the free programs that I think are great, I have them on all of my computers:

Dropbox - file backup/syncronizing - allows you to sync and backup online 2GB of storage. You can share files with other people that have dropbox and link publically to files you store on there (like this page).

Songbird - music player - from the people that brought you firefox is an awesome music player that is very similar to firefox. It has plugins, skins, and a tabbed format that includes an internet browser.

Google Chrome - internet browser - google's internet browser. Need I say more.

VLC - video player - a no-frills media player that plays anything.

GIMP - image editor - photoshop but free...legally.

Scilab - numerical methods - a replacement for matlab.

2008.10.01

This is a test of my new form of internet website. This site is a loophole in more than one sense.

This is the first link I will share: [LINK] is rather self referencial!